(Tuesday 9 June 2009)
The rebels without a coup
In the increasingly surreal nightmare that is our politics today, everything can seem like a game. The absurdity of Gordon Brown hiring reality TV gameshow star Sir Alan Sugar - soon to be made a lord - as a business "tsar" was almost the least bizarre incident of the past week.
The weirdest has been the attempted regicide in the Labour Party by a small crew of Blairite careerists. So far that has resembled a suicidal game of Cluedo - first to go was Hazel Blears in the study with the brooch pin, then it was James Purnell in the dark with the poison pen letter.
These are odd rebels. What are they rebelling against?
The Blairites' last stand is to campaign against a leader, Brown, who they claim cannot win an election - but not against the right-wing policies which have continued to drive voters away from Labour, with the disastrous results we saw in the local and European polls.
They are plotters for sure, but they have no agenda, no policies and no candidate. The rebels simply don't have a coup.
Do they really believe that changing the captain of the Titanic will stop the ship hitting the iceberg and sinking? It is the political direction of the Labour Party that needs to be changed, whoever is the leader.
The Blairites command support, but it is mainly among right-wing journalists.
Indeed, as Purnell and Blears, followed by John Hutton and Geoff Hoon defenestrated themselves from the Cabinet last week, cheers went up from ordinary members of the Labour Party and trade unionists.
I have heard from numerous Labour activists that the departure of this bunch is one of the best recruiting aids the party could have devised.
It was almost funny watching Blears and Purnell shoot themselves in public in the vague hope that this would somehow cause a tenacious and wily political fox like Brown to follow suit. In fact, they simply saved him some ammunition.
It also is worth remembering, as we see Purnell and Blears being canonised by the right-wing media for trying to put the boot into Brown, that both of them still have some pretty searching questions to answer about their own expenses. People like these could hardly lead a clean up of British politics.
Brown saw off the initial attempt on his leadership last week with some ease - and the dubious aid of Peter Mandelson, who supports the Prime Minister like the proverbial rope.
Labour's massacre in the European elections provoked a further froth of media speculation that there would be a fresh coup attempt.
So what do the Euro election results show?
Basically, that Labour's vote collapsed. Labour voters have effectively gone on strike. The headline figure is that Labour managed less than 16 per cent of the vote. And that itself was on a turnout of only 34 per cent across Britain.
The problem Labour faced was replicated for socialist and social democratic parties across Europe - though none managed to implode quite so spectacularly.
It is hard evidence that voters on the left everywhere are increasingly disengaged from European politics.
That is dangerous for the obvious reason that far-right parties like the BNP can get parliamentary seats. But it also lets the mainstream right in Europe off without serious challenge.
Here in Britain, that's a problem for the Labour voters who stayed at home, and for the rest of us too.
Brown and Mandelson are right about one thing - changing the Labour leader and precipitating an early general election would only hand an easier victory to the Tories.
The logic of that position means Labour needs to change direction in order to improve the chances of defeating the Tories next year.
That's not a new prescription, but it's long overdue. Labour MPs, affiliated unions and ordinary members need to now put massive pressure on the leadership of the party to bring the striking Labour voters back on board.
Across the country, Labour voters are withholding their support and standing back expectantly, like millions of Sonic the Hedgehogs during a pause in the video game, arms folded and tapping their feet, waiting for the party they want to back come up with some policies they can actually support.There are plenty of policies like that.
Labour could ditch Trident. Labour could ditch the plan to privatise Royal Mail. Labour could ditch ID cards. All hugely unpopular and expensive mistakes.
Labour could ditch the Purnell assault on the welfare state and add some more tax burden to the wealthy.
If he wants a legacy before he is finished as Prime Minister, Brown could promote a swathe of historic constitutional reforms.
This could include not just cleaning out the Westminster stable regarding expenses, which is essential of course, but a written constitution and bill of rights, an elected House of Lords, and - why not - electoral reform for the House of Commons.
The EU election results offer Labour's leaders an opportunity to say that at last they will listen to the voters and recognise that there is massive concern about the direction of European politics.
So let's put the Lisbon Treaty to the people in a British referendum. I think the turnout for that would be somewhat greater than 34 per cent.
And Labour should simply ditch Britain's opt-out on working hours, which many Labour MEPs actually campaigned to get rid of in a historic vote in the European Parliament in December.
If he is to have a chance of re-engaging enough voters to win, Brown - or any Labour leader - must be persuaded to adopt sensible policies like these.
A Tory victory in the next general election is not a forgone conclusion. The Tories have a thin, right-wing and actually unpopular platform of massive destruction of public services and jobs.
The talk of Westminster and the media is not about how unpopular Tory policies are or why Labour voters are on strike. It is all about whether Brown can hold on as leader of the Labour Party.
I might be completely wrong, but I doubt he will be defenestrated in short order by the Blairite coup which the Westminster journalists are breathlessly egging on.
But Brown still has a problem. The prospect of Labour winning by adopting elements of a popular left platform might be too much for his erstwhile ally Mandelson, who may decide to fatally end his support.
In Cluedo terms, Brown is not likely to be done in by the MP with the lead pipe in the kitchen.
There isn't an MP in or out of the Cabinet who could lift the lead pipe necessary to deal the blow. And none of them has a lead pipe anyway.
If Brown is going to be done in this side of a general election, I think I can tell you for sure who will have done it.
It will be Mandelson, in the billiard room, with the rope. On TV.
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