MALCOLM BURNS explains the SNP shift on an independence vote.
SCOTTISH National Party Finance Secretary John Swinney signalled last week that the SNP minority government was drawing back from its aim of an independence-or-bust referendum by 2011.
The referendum is the only SNP major manifesto commitment from 2007 left which has not yet been dumped.
But now, independence is just one of five options that Swinney (left) has set out for Holyrood. The list also includes what he calls "enhanced devolution" and "devolution max."
Swinney's shift is another example of the SNP's recognition of electoral reality. Just as with its costly local income tax proposals it dumped suddenly a couple of weeks ago, the SNP simply does not have enough votes in parliament to be able to deliver a Bill allowing a pure independence referendum.
It is interesting that Swinney's announcement was ostensibly made as part of the SNP government's failing "National Conversation." The National Conversation website now tells us: "The Scottish government is committed to bringing forward a referendum Bill in 2010, offering the options of enhanced devolution and independence."
However, this multioption move is effectively a government engagement with the Calman Commission on Scottish devolution, which was set up by opposition parties last year.
The suggestion of a devolution max option is a clear attempt to woo MSPs, particularly from the Liberal Democrats, to support an SNP referendum Bill next year which would otherwise have no chance of being passed at Holyrood.
So what would Swinney's options mean? The options are:
- Full fiscal autonomy in an independent Scotland
- A position of devolution max - full fiscal autonomy within the UK
- Creating enhanced devolution
- Assigning revenues to the Scottish Parliament
- Continuing with or marginally changing the current framework.
Apart from the independence option, they are broadly similar to the concepts being discussed by the Calman Commission on Scottish Devolution.
Calman's interim report suggested that a mix of funding options may be appropriate, including a new needs-based assessment for a block grant, some assigned taxes, some tax-raising powers, including the possibility of varying the basic rate by more than 3p and levying this on higher rates and other income, plus some limited borrowing powers.
Under the current framework, the Scottish Parliament has power to vary the basic rate of tax by 3p but has never exercised that option and is never likely to.
"Assigned revenues" means that the budget available would be determined by amount of revenue collected in Scotland. However, there would be no power to alter taxes and no block grant. Enhanced devolution would allow the Scottish Parliament power to set some taxes and to undertake some limited borrowing.
"Full fiscal autonomy within the UK" would mean taxes were set in Scotland and a percentage of revenue paid to Westminster for defence and foreign affairs.
And, of course, with independence, there would be full revenue-raising and borrowing powers and monetary policy would be determined in Scotland - and we would end up rich like Norway, according to Alex Salmond, or bankrupt like Iceland, according to Jim Murphy.
Anyway, the bottom line as of now is that it looks like there may well be no referendum at all.
Prudential borrowing call
THE Scottish Labour Party's formal embrace of borrowing powers for the Holyrood parliament is welcome.
The step was part of Labour's response last week to the Calman Commission on Scottish devolution's interim report.
It is now almost certain that this will be one of the recommendations which Calman will make in a final report, due in September.
Even the limited power for prudential borrowing is likely to mean that the days of rip-off PFI and PPP schemes to fund public projects should be numbered.
STUC delegation heads to Palestine
I WISH all the best to the group of 11 senior trade unionists who left Scotland for the West Bank on Saturday.
The STUC delegation will meet representatives from the Israeli trade union federation Histadrut and will hold talks with the Palestinian General Federation of Trade Unions (PGFTU) in the occupied territories to investigate the merits of supporting a boycott, disinvestment and sanctions against the state of Israel until it complies with international law and agreed human rights principles.
The delegation will report to the 2009 congress in Perth next month, when the STUC will have a chance to take a decision on the issue.
The STUC has a long and proud record of engagement in the Palestinian situation. Three years ago, Scottish unions facilitated a historic meeting when representatives of Histadrut and the PGFTU addressed a session of the STUC congress in Dundee.
I understand that there is a possibility of another such engagement in Perth next month - if the PGFTU representatives are actually allowed to travel by the Israeli state.
I don't think the STUC delegation is scheduled to visit Gaza. That's possibly a good thing, since they might bump into some pretty disreputable and dangerous characters out there - war criminal Tony Blair was on a fleeting visit to Gaza on Sunday.
It has often been observed that irony is dead, but I think it may actually be extremely nauseous. I certainly had to grab the sick bag when Blair called for the lifting of the Israeli blockade on Gaza with that sanctimonious grimace.
Of course the blockade should be lifted. But among many other atrocious outcomes for many people in many lands, Blair's actions following September 11 2001 strengthened the hand of their Israeli oppressors and have directly led to the crisis the Palestinians now face.
Just plain old right-wing
IT'S a well-known fact that Chancellor Alistair Darling, who actually comes from a posh Edinburgh family, was in his youth a paper-seller of a distinctly Trotty variety.
This has given rise to the waggish suggestion among old Labour hands that Darling's current actions may be starting to fulfil the promise of long ago.
Four of the top 200 monopolies nationalised and only 196 to go?
Sadly, I fear not. Darling made the short leap from being objectively right-wing to being just plain old right-wing a long time ago and has no intention of actually putting even the banks he has already paid for with our money under anything like democratic control. Heaven forfend.
Scottish CND strategy day
AS I'M at the Labour conference in Dundee, I will miss the Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament's strategy day on Saturday.
Among those developing SCND's strategic priorities and sharing campaigning skills will be John Ainslie, Isobel Lindsay, Morag Balfour and Arthur West. Training workshops will include political lobbying, use of new technology, street work and organising events.
The strategy day takes place at Renfield St Stephen's on Bath Street in Glasgow from 10.30am on Saturday March 7. Check out www.banthebomb.org for details.
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