MALCOLM BURNS looks at Labour's next big by-election hurdle.
Wendy Alexander could little have imagined how events would have run out of Labour's control since her surprise resignation a week ago.
Amid the flurry of leadership speculation, Glasgow East MP David Marshall resigned due to ill health, triggering a by-election.
Labour forced the pace on this in order to get it out of the way quickly. The vote is due on Thursday July 24, in the middle of the traditional Glasgow Fair holiday.
Despite an ultra-safe Labour majority of more than 13,000, bookies started giving odds on the SNP to win.
On Friday, in a bizarre twist, Labour's expected candidate in Glasgow East local councillor George Ryan failed to show at the selection meeting. This was explained as being due to "family pressures."
In the ensuing crisis, it appears that several high-profile Labour figures were asked to stand and refused.
The speculative list included Glasgow City Council leader Stephen Purcell, former party general secretary Lesley Quinn and Shettleston MSP Frank McAveety, whose Scottish Parliament constituency overlaps Glasgow East.
Then, Labour MSP Margaret Curran, whose Baillieston constituency also overlaps Glasgow East, stepped in to offer herself as a candidate.
Curran, who was confirmed as the Scottish Labour candidate on Monday night, does not intend to resign as an MSP if she wins, despite Labour's continual sniping at SNP leader Alex Salmond, who has retained his Westminster seat.
So, does Labour's "lost weekend" mean defeat in Glasgow East?
It is worth remembering that this is not the Glasgow Govan which haunts Labour memories. Govan delivered two remarkable SNP by-election victories, for Margo MacDonald in 1973 and her husband, former Labour MP Jim Sillars, in 1988.
Glasgow East remains famously poverty stricken, despite decades of Labour representation. Two out of five residents are on benefit, either due to unemployment or sickness. Male life expectancy, at 64, is 14 years below the UK average.
In some of the poorer districts, the figure is actually below 60 years.
However, Labour will raise hopes for the future with promises of spin-off regeneration from the 2014 Commonwealth Games, which have been secured by the city council. The SNP has no track record in Glasgow East, which is the archetypally solid Glasgow Labour stronghold.
So much so, in fact, that an SNP victory here would be even more remarkable than either of the Govan triumphs.
It is hard to predict how the voters will actually respond to the by-election spectacle which is about to land in their midst.
Turnout, even in a general election, is usually in the low thirties and may be less on July 24. The bookies currently make it very close but give the edge to Labour.
For Labour, a previously unthinkable defeat would put huge pressure on Gordon Brown's leadership. For the SNP, victory would be a jaw-dropping coup.
For everyone, left or right, nationalist or unionist, it could be the ultimate demonstration that Labour is in meltdown.
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