An SNP coup in Glasgow
FOR Labour, it was hotter than the Gaza Strip out in the East End of Glasgow on Thursday. Last week, I had the feeling that the party would maybe just hold on in the Glasgow East by-election, despite its disastrous start. I was wrong.Winning Glasgow East is a jaw-dropping coup for the SNP.
The fatal damage to Labour's chances was not done, however, by the inept initial failure to select a candidate in that first "lost weekend" of the campaign. When she bravely stepped forward, Margaret Curran was as strong a candidate as Labour could hope for. Also the campaign was not actually lacking much in organisation, resources or volunteers.
Certainly, the SNP had more bodies on the street, but Labour should have been defending the defensible in Glasgow East.
Labour couldn't lose a seat like this unless a substantial part of its core vote actually turned against it.
The party, moving ever rightward under Blair and now Brown, has basically failed to make itself relevant to enough of its core voters over the last decade.
The lack of local organisation and canvassing returns before the by-election - indeed, almost the lack of a proper local constituency party at all - is evidence of a party which has lost touch with its roots.
The decay is replicated around Scotland. The SNP increasingly senses that Labour in Scotland is a hollow shell. If that is true, then Glasgow Easts could happen all across Scotland - and indeed Britain - at the next Westminster election.
The SNP victory was perhaps not too much of a surprise. It should, however, be an enormous shock to Labour. But the loss of power at Holyrood last year only seems to have confused Labour in Scotland, rather than sharpened it up.
Given that it has yet to learn from that defeat, I am not confident that Labour will take on board the even harsher lesson of Glasgow East.
Although the by-election was, in my view, mainly about who governs Scotland and not a referendum on Gordon Brown, as the media have tended to assume, the defeat only hastens Labour's demise at Westminster.
The Labour Party leadership doesn't appear to know how it got itself into this situation and has no obvious idea how to get itself out.
With Brown clinging desperately to Blairism, the Labour bus is being driven deliberately over an electoral cliff. The unions, so far, have failed to wrest the steering wheel back to a sane course.
At the time of writing this, I fully expect the Warwick policy forum meeting at the weekend to have further sealed Labour's fate with a few worthless ambiguous promises on the trade union agenda set to be reneged upon by a deluded Cabinet. That's one thing I would not mind being wrong about.
THE chasm of difference between narrowly winning and narrowly losing a by-election can be illustrated by asking who, apart from the political anoraks, remembers the huge 22 per cent SNP swing in Hamilton South in 1999.
Labour held on by 556 votes in a west Scotland constituency approximately as safe as Glasgow East.
A few months afterwards, Alex Salmond resigned the leadership of the SNP and left the Scottish Parliament to concentrate on being a Westminster MP. His party languished aimlessly under John Swinney until Salmond returned to galvanise it in 2004.
ONE young Labour canvasser knocking up supporters in Glasgow East on Thursday was pleased to find a very old lady who confirmed that she had already voted Labour, as she always did.
She went on to explain to the youth that the seat had been represented by John Wheatley. "But," she concluded, "I think he's retired now, son."
Red Clydesider Wheatley did indeed represent the Glasgow east end constituency of Shettleston - from 1922 until he died in 1930.
A thousand cuts take toll on Herald
CHARLES McGhee, editor of Scotland's biggest circulation "quality" paper The Herald, has resigned after only two-and-a-half years in post.Rapacious US media owner Gannett, through its UK-based newspaper company Newsquest, has milked Glasgow's Herald, Sunday Herald and Evening Times group of titles for profit while cutting jobs and, ultimately, the quality of the product.
Five years ago, when it took over the papers from the troubled Scottish Media Group, Newsquest gave a commitment to the Competition Commission that it would invest in jobs and journalism in Scotland.
Instead, the number of jobs has been slashed by more than a third. Following round and after round of redundancies, The Herald is now produced by little over 100 editorial staff, down from 186 at the point of takeover.
Meanwhile, Newsquest has delivered £17.1 million in profits from the Glasgow operation alone to its US shareholders.
Further redundancies are being planned.
McGhee's resignation comes a year after the first newspaper strike in Scotland for quarter of century at the group. The NUJ-led strike was successful in beating off compulsory redundancies.
"Management claim that they are making savings because of a decline in advertising revenue and circulation," according to James Doherty, the Glasgow-based president of the NUJ.
"We would argue that, if you invest in your product, readers will stay loyal along with advertisers.
"But Newsquest seems more interested in a business model which squeezes the very life out of some of Scotland's most famous titles."
Doherty said of the latest news: "If Charles McGhee has resigned over the budget cuts he has had to oversee, he will be applauded by every journalist, not only at Newsquest, but throughout the UK. I hope it is a principled stand he has taken, that there comes a point where further budget cuts become unacceptable if you are wanting a newspaper to thrive. If it is, it will send shock waves around the industry."
Danger of flag-waving
ON Monday, Labour's Scottish executive meets to kick off the process to elect a new Scottish leader.Actually, the position is not leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, but "leader of the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament," as Scotland Office Minister David Cairns pointedly reminds us each time he appears in public.
To the already declared front-runners deputy leader Cathy Jamieson and Edinburgh MSP Iain Gray, we must now add former Jack McConnell sidekick Andy Kerr, who has decided to throw his hat in the ring after Glasgow East.
All of these establishment front-runners are now backing off from Wendy Alexander's call for a referendum on independence. So it looks like lots more Union flag waving in the hope that this will scare people into voting Labour.
But the louder that Labour cries wolf on independence, the more frantic and unpalatable the party appears. That is a lesson which should have been learned a year ago in May.
Meanwhile, the SNP appears more reasonable, winning the trust of even Labour core voters which Labour itself appears not to value.
The unpopularity of new Labour will then likely result in a Tory government in England and an increasingly popular and trusted SNP government in Scotland.
Thus Labour's Union flag wavers could precipitate the break up of the UK which they so fear.
Brains would be an advantage.