so off to sunny SY with the daughter for what are sometimes known as the whisky olympics.
will you be here when i get back next week? will i?
war in a babylon.
Friday, 14 October 2005
Tuesday, 11 October 2005
Many a Merkel maks a muckle
'Sheer horror' greets Merkel's grand coalition from Guardian Unlimited: Newsblog: "Other SPD activists said they would vote against the deal when it is put to the party at a conference to be held in Karlsruhe in mid-November. If the deal is approved, but only narrowly, there seems little prospect of Germany's new left-right government lasting a full four-year term. Indeed, the real winner from today’s announcement is probably Germany’s new Left party (German).
With the SPD occupying crucial ministries such as finance and labour, the Left party is likely to profit in the long run when disillusionment with the 'grand coalition' sets in, as it inevitably will. This is, after all, what happened last time there was a grand coalition in Germany in the late 1960s. The period yielded the Red Army Faction, a terrorist group, and the best ever result for the neo-Nazi NPD (German) in 1969, with voters drifting off to the radical left and radical right."
With the SPD occupying crucial ministries such as finance and labour, the Left party is likely to profit in the long run when disillusionment with the 'grand coalition' sets in, as it inevitably will. This is, after all, what happened last time there was a grand coalition in Germany in the late 1960s. The period yielded the Red Army Faction, a terrorist group, and the best ever result for the neo-Nazi NPD (German) in 1969, with voters drifting off to the radical left and radical right."
Saturday, 1 October 2005
how others see others
People's Daily Online -- Comment: Will 'civil war break out' in Iraq?:
Recently, terror attack incidents have increased rapidly in Iraq, taking a toll of deaths counted by hundreds, conflicts among different religious sects have occurred from time to time. Analysts say that the aim of the bloody war provoked by Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, leader of the Iraq holy war al-Qaeda network, will be realized, a "civil war will occur in Iraq".
Under the circumstance of the worsening security situation and the escalation of violence conflicts in Iraq, the transitional National Assembly of Iraq passed the final draft of the new constitution on September 18 and will hold a national referendum on October 15.
Iraq's bad news comes from streets and suicide attacks have occurred one after another. But according to the revelation of news, the attackers are mostly outsiders under the al-Qaeda network, but this does not mean that a strong organized resistance force has been formed within the Iraqi society. It seems that conflicts occurred among religious sects have not reached the extent of running out of control, it can only show that Iraq is presently in a certain state of disorder and a vacuum of management. The ordinary people of Iraq have long been living in misery and turmoil, their hope for an early restoration of stability to the country originally should be a spiritual foundation for national reconstruction, but because of the originally fairly complicated social, ethnic and religious structures and under the specific environment of being occupied by external forces, it is very hard to carry out the reconstruction work. If the process of reconstruction long remains fruitless and inefficient, if the security of common people living under various conflicts cannot be guaranteed, then, armed organizations delineated according to religious sects and ethnic groups would become the main actors of this society and a civil war would hardly be avoided.
Good news about Iraq remains on paper, this means that the constitution draft had been adopted by the transitional National Assembly. The national referendum scheduled for October 15 will be a "touchstone" testing the development trend of the Iraqi political situation. If the new constitution can be passed in the referendum, it can shed light on two questions: One is the new government possessing a certain kind of socially recognized legality; second is the new government having a certain social organizing capability. According to the new constitution, a federal system is to be introduced to Iraq, its form of government will have the nature of a self-government coalition. The crux of the matter at present is that in the four provinces where the Sunnis are the majority, as long as the new constitution draft was rejected, it would mean that the new constitution is a dead fetus.
Because the federal system stipulated in the new constitution would cause great harm to the interests of the Sunnis, the prospect for the adoption of the new constitution draft through referendum is not optimistic.
In Iraq, the United States is the main behavior from outside. The US has smashed Iraq's original social domination structure with its strong military power, at the same time it has also stimulated the internal contradictions of the Iraqi society and resistance to the United States. It is a commentator's view that the United States has underestimated the historical and cultural conditions of the Middle East, reckoning that it could recreate a Middle East on strength of its military superiority. But facts show that destroying a society by external military forces is effective, but the result in reconstructing the society is limited, the latter mainly refers to a cultural process. In the course of Iraq's reconstruction, the United States is compelled to bow to the original pattern of the Iraqi society, it relies more often on the Shiites' strength, despite the fact that this is a secret worry in its geopolitical consideration. In Iraq, complicated surrounding geopolitics, the thorny problem of balancing tribal interests, and the tense relations among religious sects--all often pose difficult problems to the United States.
Viewed from the present situation, the United States seems to have been bogged down in the situation of unraveling silk and only to mess it up. Perhaps history has demonstrated that the US has won a military victory in Iraq, at the same time, it has suffered a cultural and geopolitical defeat.
In the historical tunnel of Iraq, people have not yet seen the light of the end. Behind the Iraqi issue are the general pattern and a big game chessboard in regard to the relations between the US and the Islamic world. On this big chessboard, neighboring countries like Iran, Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia all exert different degrees of influence on Iraq's development trends.
Recently, terror attack incidents have increased rapidly in Iraq, taking a toll of deaths counted by hundreds, conflicts among different religious sects have occurred from time to time. Analysts say that the aim of the bloody war provoked by Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, leader of the Iraq holy war al-Qaeda network, will be realized, a "civil war will occur in Iraq".
Under the circumstance of the worsening security situation and the escalation of violence conflicts in Iraq, the transitional National Assembly of Iraq passed the final draft of the new constitution on September 18 and will hold a national referendum on October 15.
Iraq's bad news comes from streets and suicide attacks have occurred one after another. But according to the revelation of news, the attackers are mostly outsiders under the al-Qaeda network, but this does not mean that a strong organized resistance force has been formed within the Iraqi society. It seems that conflicts occurred among religious sects have not reached the extent of running out of control, it can only show that Iraq is presently in a certain state of disorder and a vacuum of management. The ordinary people of Iraq have long been living in misery and turmoil, their hope for an early restoration of stability to the country originally should be a spiritual foundation for national reconstruction, but because of the originally fairly complicated social, ethnic and religious structures and under the specific environment of being occupied by external forces, it is very hard to carry out the reconstruction work. If the process of reconstruction long remains fruitless and inefficient, if the security of common people living under various conflicts cannot be guaranteed, then, armed organizations delineated according to religious sects and ethnic groups would become the main actors of this society and a civil war would hardly be avoided.
Good news about Iraq remains on paper, this means that the constitution draft had been adopted by the transitional National Assembly. The national referendum scheduled for October 15 will be a "touchstone" testing the development trend of the Iraqi political situation. If the new constitution can be passed in the referendum, it can shed light on two questions: One is the new government possessing a certain kind of socially recognized legality; second is the new government having a certain social organizing capability. According to the new constitution, a federal system is to be introduced to Iraq, its form of government will have the nature of a self-government coalition. The crux of the matter at present is that in the four provinces where the Sunnis are the majority, as long as the new constitution draft was rejected, it would mean that the new constitution is a dead fetus.
Because the federal system stipulated in the new constitution would cause great harm to the interests of the Sunnis, the prospect for the adoption of the new constitution draft through referendum is not optimistic.
In Iraq, the United States is the main behavior from outside. The US has smashed Iraq's original social domination structure with its strong military power, at the same time it has also stimulated the internal contradictions of the Iraqi society and resistance to the United States. It is a commentator's view that the United States has underestimated the historical and cultural conditions of the Middle East, reckoning that it could recreate a Middle East on strength of its military superiority. But facts show that destroying a society by external military forces is effective, but the result in reconstructing the society is limited, the latter mainly refers to a cultural process. In the course of Iraq's reconstruction, the United States is compelled to bow to the original pattern of the Iraqi society, it relies more often on the Shiites' strength, despite the fact that this is a secret worry in its geopolitical consideration. In Iraq, complicated surrounding geopolitics, the thorny problem of balancing tribal interests, and the tense relations among religious sects--all often pose difficult problems to the United States.
Viewed from the present situation, the United States seems to have been bogged down in the situation of unraveling silk and only to mess it up. Perhaps history has demonstrated that the US has won a military victory in Iraq, at the same time, it has suffered a cultural and geopolitical defeat.
In the historical tunnel of Iraq, people have not yet seen the light of the end. Behind the Iraqi issue are the general pattern and a big game chessboard in regard to the relations between the US and the Islamic world. On this big chessboard, neighboring countries like Iran, Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia all exert different degrees of influence on Iraq's development trends.
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